Expected Value Betting Calculator: +EV Bet Calculator
An +EV betting calculator compares market prices to an estimated statistical likelihood to illustrate how expected value is calculated.
At positive EV the framework is applied to compare estimated probabilities with market odds for analytical evaluation.
Value betting calculators often have only two input fields, such as the quoted prices and the modeled likelihood of the outcome. These calculators require an estimated probability input for the betting outcome.
The EV betting calculator on this site has multiple additional and important input fields to calculate the value of market prices. In these fields, users insert odds for the same market from a reference sportsbook commonly used for pricing comparison.
The main goal of this theoretical expectancy model is to simplify the mathematical process of expected value calculation. With this tool, likelihood estimates are derived from reference quoted prices, reducing the need for manual calculations.
⚠️ Important Legal & Risk Disclosure
This page is for educational and analytical purposes only.
Betting laws and availability vary by jurisdiction.
Tools shown here do not guarantee outcomes or financial results.
How does the odds value betting calculator work?
- You need to use the decimal format (here is my Odds Converter if you are used to American or Fractional odds)
- In the overvalued odds box, you insert the price from your local betting site.
- Sharp odds same outcome: you need to insert the quoted prices for the same outcome from a sharp/accurate betting site. I advise using Pinnacle.
- Sharp odds of the other outcome: The price for the other outcome, from an accurate bookie like Pinnacle.
How is the expected value calculated?
- You need to introduce odds for both outcomes from a sharp bookie. This way, the EV calculator is capable of defining the margin-adjusted prices for these markets by excluding the house edge.
- Other available EV calculators ask you to insert the estimated likelihood of an outcome. For this, you will need to use a different tool in order to figure out this number.
- Here, you will simply insert the inefficient prices you want to place bets on, and the odds from a sharp bookie for the same outcome.
This tool can be useful for understanding how a value bet spotter software works.
By reviewing the calculations, users can evaluate whether the theoretical expectancy methodology aligns with their analytical approach.
How do you calculate the true positive EV of odds?
The formula to calculate the theoretical expectancy of odds is as follows:
(True probability of the outcome * Profits of the bet if win) - (True probability of the other outcome * Initial stake on the bet)
Example for odds EV bet calculation:
- Overpriced odds: 1.80
- Stake: $100
- Sharp odds same outcome: 1.58 -> without bookie edge: 1.632 -> True probability: 0.613 (value rounded up)
- Sharp odds another outcome: 2.50 -> ~2.58 without bookie edge -> True probability: 0.387 (value rounded up)
Overpriced odds EV (expected value) = (0.613 * 80) - (0.387 * 100) = $10.34
Closing line value calculators also have a huger role in some betting techniques. Many bettors put a large emphasis on pricing accuracy at sharp bookies right before the match starts.
What does EV mean in odds?
In the world of sports market prices, EV stands for "Expected Value."
Theoretical expectancy is a concept used in likelihood theory and gambling to determine the average outcome of a bet over a large number of simulations/samples.
The expected value of the odds represents the theoretical average outcome over a large number of repeated trials.
A positive theoretical expectancy indicates that, under the assumptions used, the theoretical outcome is favorable over a large sample size.
In sports betting analysis, expected value is used to compare different pricing scenarios based on likelihood assumptions.
It is important to mention and understand that even a positive expected value does not guarantee a particular outcome.
It serves as a guide and possibility for long-term returns.
What is the role of a favorable expectancy calculator in sports betting?
The main role of a sports betting EV model is to correctly define the expected value of the inserted odds based on sharp bookie odds without the house edge.
What are the weaknesses of this positive EV betting calculator?
The main weakness of this model is that sharp bookies like Pinnacle do not distribute the house edge equally between outcomes. This can easily result in a higher house edge on one side of the bet. This EV betting the model estimates the assumed house edge as equal on both outcomes. The approach results in a small discrepancy in defining the margin-adjusted prices for a specific betting outcome.
Is it worth using an EV bet calculation for each of my bets?
For users learning expectancy-based evaluation, reviewing individual calculations can help illustrate how price efficiency is assessed. It would be best if you made sure that every bet you place (not offered by value bet finders) has a positive edge against statistics and bookies.
